The Sky is Falling or is it falling?

Some of you know me as Joy Bangla from Twitter/Telegram or my Super Algorithm Indicator.

Some Rules I follow

I will list more rules as I produce more newsletter in the near future. Here are some that I tell myself every day.

1. Rule #1: Never lose invested capital.
2. Rule #2: Market never dies
3. Rule#3: I do not short in a bull market. I do not long in a bear market.
4. Rule#4: A market is not bearish until a bearish sign appears from Super Algorithm Indicator. A market is not bullish until a bullish sign appears from Super Algorithm Indicator.
5. Rule #5: Constantly follow the process and strategy that has worked while learning new techniques

My personal goals are $240,000 for BTCUSD, $75 for SOL, and $7603 for ETHUSD by Dec 2021.

Bitcoin

I shared the below bitcoin plan on Twitter on March 31st (around 8 days back). Price has come down and touched my BTFD area on the exact date as suggested. What now?

Daily Chart:

Let us analyze the Bitcoin daily chart as can be found here

https://www.tradingview.com/x/FNFkWW8O/

Super Algorithm Indicator

The colour of the candle is purple from the Super Algorithm Indicator, meaning it is telling me to be extremely cautious with any long position. It is not telling me to go into leverage short. Also, the bullish sign has not closed.

Ichimoku

The Chiku (green line) has some tall candles in front of it that usually means there is heavy resistance for it to go up in immediate terms. The price is below the Tenkan (red line) and is just hugging the kijun (blue line). If the price goes below the kijun, then we have the Kumo (green cloud) that either act as support or acts as an edge-to-edge. The Kijun (blue line) is almost flat, meaning it is possibly acting as solid support. Do realize that every hand is weak, and every s/r breaks one day or another. Is today the time the support breaks for lower or will support hold for an ultimate bounce? This is a big question that no one can answer for certainty. However, kijun is where price had quite often (not always) shown a tendency to bounce; & hence a possible opportunity to go leverage long.

2Day Timeframe

Let us analyze the 2D Timeframe Bitcoin chart, as can be seen here https://www.tradingview.com/x/3vJ9KB4p/

Super Algorithm Indicator

The Super Algorithm is showing a purple candle, making me wait for adding any new position. It does not display any red candle or bearish sign. The market can do anything at any moment. However, the indicator is not indicating any imminent bearish move of the market.

Ichimoku

The tenkan and kijun lines were going apart for a while. These lines have started to come closer. The worrying part is the Kijun is moving up slightly faster than tenkan is going up. Also, the tenkan has fallen slightly down in the last three days. The tenkan is almost flat at $55446. Both tenkan and kijun had shown the ability to bounce the price to allow the trend to continue. As far as I know, a flat tenkan/kijun are strong s/r. The Chiku does have some tall structure in front. However, if the price can make a run-up in the next three or four days, Chiku & the price might get free space to go up aggressively. A price above $57640 might take Chiku to a better bullish position.

Ichimoku is bullish on 2Day timeframe:

• Price is above Tenkan red line
• Tenkan red line is above blue Kijun line
• Kijun blue line is above green Kumo cloud that is also curving up with a bigger cloud showing up in the distance future
• Chiku still has the possibility to set free

Weekly

The weekly chart ( https://www.tradingview.com/x/Kd0oTBRE/) shows the following features:

• Super Indicator shows green colour, with the bullish sign still there, meaning there is bullish move remaining in subsequent weeks.
• Ichimoku is strongly bullish, except the tenkan and kijun has started to widen their gap. The tenkan red line points up, meaning even if the price gets there, it will likely act as a great good bounce.
• The down arrows continue. If the down arrows stop, I would be expecting at least a week of the downturn. It is pointless to talk of it while the arrow continues.
• Weekly volume has been lower while the price is struggling. Are bears losing conviction?

Volume

There is almost the same amount of green volume as the red volume in the last two weeks or so, as can be found here . None of these volumes has crossed above the average (14 days) volume. I do not find enough conviction from bears to worry at this stage of the bull market.

Conclusion

In our pursuit of analysing Bitcoin, are our hearts getting greedier while our brain is constantly whispering in our ears, “The Sky is Falling!”. This struggle is real and can cause havoc to our pnl. It can also trap our mindset to be either perma-bear or perma-bull. At times, it may be time for me to wait for better clear days or take an opportunity when the opportunity arises.

The bitcoin chart does not currently resemble bearish though it has some sparse overcast feature. It is also resting over Kijun, which tended to bounce the price up for the trend to continue. My plan, for myself, has not changed; though, I have gone cautious. The price has done almost what I tweeted. Now, I wait for the bounce if it happens.

Please NOTE:

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The content here is for informational purposes only. Nothing is intended to serve as financial advice. I am not a financial advisor. Every investment and trading move involves risk. Do your own research when making a decision.